2013 Canadian Soybean Production Slightly Higher – StatsCan

on January 7 | in Ag News | by | with No Comments

From Statistics Canada

For 2013-14, production increased marginally to a record 5.2 Mt. Production by province was: Quebec 0.85 Mt, Ontario 3.1 Mt, Manitoba 1.1 Mt and Saskatchewan 0.1 Mt. Supply is forecast to increase marginally as lower carry-in stocks and stable imports moderate the rise in output. Domestic processing is forecast to increase slightly due to higher supply.

Exports are forecast at 3.4 Mt, slightly above last year. This forecast is supported by the current export shipments to-date, although the pace is expected to decrease in the second half of 2013-14 following the harvest in South America. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly from 2012-13. The average price of soybeans at Chatham is forecast to fall to $510-550/t under pressure from lower US soybean prices.

For 2013-14, world production of soybeans is forecast at a record 284 Mt, up 6% from last year, on increased US output and expected record production for South America. The world supply of soybeans is forecast at a record 344 Mt due to support from higher carry-in stocks. In turn, this is expected to support a record world crush of 240 Mt, up 11 Mt from last year. World trade is expected to rise by 8 Mt on support from increased Chinese imports. Carry-out stocks are forecast at a record 70 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26% vs 24% for 2012-13. The sustained rally in world soybean prices above levels implied by carry-out stocks and stocks-to-use ratios reflects the strong and growing world demand for oilseeds in general.

World consumption of protein meals and vegetable oils are forecast at 275 Mt and 164 Mt, up 4% from 2012-13, respectively.

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