From Ag Can’s Outlook for Principal Field Crops
For 2013-14, exports are forecast to decrease significantly from the record high in 2013-13 due to a projected recovery in US and world corn production along with lower prices in the world’s major corn exporting countries. Imports are forecast to increase due to early season logistical problems but remain below the previous five and 10-year averages. Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 4% as overall livestock feeding increases and industrial demand remains at trend levels. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase a record 3.4 Mt. The Chatham in-store elevator price is forecast to decrease due to lower US and world corn prices related to the large North American and world corn crop in 2013.
Due to record corn production in Canada, carry-out stocks are forecast to be 17% higher than the previous three-year average. Despite large Ontario corn stocks, the nearby Chatham corn basis has been narrower than the previous three-year average since November because of the weak Canadian dollar and relatively flat US futures prices. Since the beginning of November 2013, US corn futures prices have traded in a relatively narrow range of about US $0.20/bu. Price support from the USDA’s January WASDE report and good corn export volumes for January have been more than offset by pressure from the strong US dollar and issues from China regarding imports of genetically modified corn.
For 2014-15, seeded area is forecast to decrease by 3% from the record area of 2013-14 due to the lower prices. Production is forecast to decrease 8% to 13.1 Mt due to lower area seeded and lower average yields.
Due to high carry-in stocks, supply is forecast to increase by 3%. Imports are forecast to decrease by one-half due to high domestic supply. Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 3% due to higher ethanol production, industrial use and livestock feeding.
Exports are forecast to increase by 25% due to the larger total supply. Carryout stocks are forecast to remain unchanged at 3.4 Mt. Prices are forecast to decrease due to lower corn prices in the US related to abundant supplies of North America.