From AgCan’s Oultlook for Principal Field Crops
For 2013-14, soybean exports are forecast to rise marginally from last year to 3.4 Mt on steady world demand and large exportable supplies. Similarly, the domestic crush is forecast to rise by 4% on generally attractive crush margins and large available stocks. Carry-out stocks are forecast up by 16%, to 0.20 Mt. Prices are forecast to fall under pressure from lower US prices and large world soybean supplies.
World production of soybeans is forecast at a record 287 Mt, up 7% from 2012-13, on increased US output and expected record production for South America.
The world supply of soybeans is forecast at a record 347 Mt as higher carry-in stocks supplement the rise in production. Based on strong demand for soyoil and soymeal, the world soybean crush is estimated at a record 240 Mt, a rise of 9 Mt from last year. World trade is expected to rise by 9 Mt on support from increased Chinese imports. Carry-out stocks are forecast at a record 72 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26% vs 24% for 2012-13. World soybean prices are being sustained by strong Chinese buying but are expected to be pressured by the upcoming South American crop. World consumption of protein meals and vegetable oils are forecast at 276 Mt and 164 Mt, up 4% from 2012-13, respectively.
For 2014-15, area seeded in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally from 2013-14, to 1.83 mln ha.
Production is forecast to fall by 6% to 4.9 Mt as yields are forecast at normal levels. Supply is expected to decrease by 5% as higher carry-in stocks partly offset the decrease in production.
Exports are forecast to decrease by 0.3 Mt.
from 2013-14, to 3.1 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast unchanged at 0.2 Mt. Average Canadian prices are forecast to decrease from 2013-14 as a result of lower US prices.