From Agriculture Canada’s Outlook for Field Crops
CORN For 2014-15 , imports are forecast to increase sharply to 1.7 Mt given the decline in domestic supply and are about 50% higher than the previous five-year average. Exports are forecast to decrease by 60% due to the decline in domestic supply and the much lower quality of the 2014 crop. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by nearly 20% to 1.3 Mt. The Chatham in- store elevator price is forecast to increase above 2013-14 levels as the nearby No. 2 CW basis continues to be well-above the previous five-year average. The basis levels continued to strengthen throughout January due to the lower value of the Canadian dollar. The late harvest in 2014 and the poor quality of the crop have been supportive to prices.
Canadian corn stocks were estimated by Stats Can to be 17% lower than the year ago level but 3% higher than the previous 5-year average. The 2014 eastern Canadian corn crop has suffered from bushel weight, grade and moisture issues and this would be the reason for the slower-than-normal deliveries.
For 2015-16, seeded area is forecast to increase by 6% from 2014-15 due to higher expected corn prices and lower area seeded to winter wheat in Eastern Canada. Production is forecast to increase 6% to 12.2 Mt due to the higher area and an assumption for average yields. However, due to lower carry-in stocks and imports, supply is forecast to decrease marginally. Imports are forecast to decrease by 33% due to the higher domestic supply and a return to a historical grade pattern. Total domestic usage is forecast to increase by 3% due to trend increases in ethanol production, industrial use and livestock feeding. Exports are forecast to decrease by 7% due to the lower total supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 38% to 0.8 Mt which would be a 20 year low. Chatham prices are forecast to increase due to the projected increase in US corn futures and support from the low value of the Canadian dollar.
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