Canadian farmers expect production of wheat, barley and lentils to increase this year, while soybeans, corn and oats are anticipated to decline, according to Statistics Canada.
Stats Can officials noted that extremely dry and wet weather conditions in different parts of the country have played a significant role in the production expectations reported in the July survey.
Here are the highlights from the Production of Principal Field Crops Report that was released on Aug. 23.
Corn for grain production in Canada is expected to decline 8.9% from 2015 to 12.3 million tonnes in 2016. The national record average yield of 164.7 bushels per acre in 2015 is expected to fall 9.4% to 149.3 bushels per acre in 2016.
Dry weather conditions in many farm areas in Ontario are tempering production expectations. As a result, farmers expect corn for grain production to fall 11.1% to 7.9 million tonnes.
This anticipated decline is tied to a projected decrease in average yield to 153.5 bushels per acre, down 10.0% from 170.6 bushels per acre in 2015. Harvested acres are expected to decline slightly (-1.2%).
Quebec farmers expect their corn for grain production to decline 8.8% from the previous year to 3.4 million tonnes. This is the result of a 1.9% reduction in harvested area to 882,200 acres, combined with a 7.0% decrease in average yield to 153.1 bushels per acre.
Conversely, production of corn for grain in Manitoba is expected to increase 19.0% from 2015 to 937,300 tonnes. This increase in production can be attributed to a 30.6% gain in harvested area to 320,000 acres, as average yield is expected to fall 11.2 bushels per acre (-8.9%) to 115.3 bushels per acre.
Nationally, soybean production is expected to be 5.8 million tonnes in 2016, down 6.5% from 2015. Reported average yields were down for all major soybean producing provinces.
Ontario, the largest soybean producer, is anticipating a 15.0% decrease to 3.1 million tonnes in 2016. Harvested area is expected to fall 7.1% to 2.7 million acres. At the same time, the average yield for the province is expected to decline from the 45.5 bushels per acre in 2015 to 41.6 bushels per acre in 2016.
In Manitoba, farmers expect record soybean production for a fifth consecutive year, up 9.8% from 2015 to 1.5 million tonnes in 2016, despite a 5.4% decrease in average yield to 35.0 bushels per acre. The anticipated increase in soybean production is the result of a 16.3% rise in harvested area to a provincial record 1.6 million acres.
Quebec producers anticipate a 1.0% decline in soybean production to 990,000 tonnes. Although a 3.0% increase in harvested area to 800,600 acres was reported, average soybean yield in Quebec is expected to fall 4.0% to 45.4 bushels per acre in 2016.
Total wheat production is expected to reach 30.5 million tonnes in 2016, up 10.5% compared with last year. This could mark the second time in 25 years that wheat production will exceed 30 million tonnes, the other being the bumper crop of 2013.
The reported increase in total wheat production resulted from a projected higher average yield of 48.9 bushels per acre in 2016, up 14.3% from 42.8 bushels per acre in 2015. In turn, harvested area declined 3.3% to 22.9 million acres, the lowest level in five years.
Farmers in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario all expect total wheat production to rise in 2016.
In Ontario, where mostly winter wheat is grown, production of all wheat is anticipated to rise 66.7% from a year earlier to 2.6 million tonnes. The overall increase reflects a higher reported harvest area of 1.1 million acres (+42.0%), and an expected record average yield of 89.2 bushels per acre (+17.4%).
Farmers in Saskatchewan anticipate production to rise 5.1% to 13.7 million tonnes, despite harvested area declining nearly a million acres to 11.9 million acres in 2016. The gain in total wheat production is buoyed by 5.0 bushels per acre increase in average yield to 42.2 bushels per acre in 2016.
Producers in Alberta expect a 15.4% increase in total wheat production to 9.6 million tonnes, the result of a 15.6% rise in average yield to 53.4 bushels per acre. Area harvested to all wheat is expected to be similar to 2015 levels at 6.6 million acres.
In contrast, Manitoba farmers reported a 2.9% decrease in the wheat they expect to produce to 4.1 million tonnes in 2016. Harvested area is anticipated to decrease 4.4% to 2.9 million acres, while yields are reported to have edged up 1.6% from 2015 to 51.1 bushels per acre.
Barley and oats
Barley production is expected to rise 5.8% to 8.7 million tonnes in 2016. This growth is attributable to a 6.5% increase in average expected yield to 69.2 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, little change is expected in harvested area, reported at 5.8 million acres (-0.7%) in 2016.
Canadian farmers expect oat production to fall 11.9% to 3.0 million tonnes. This decrease reflects a 12.1% decline in expected harvested area to 2.3 million acres, as average yield is anticipated to remain basically unchanged from last year at 85.5 bushels per acre (+0.2%).
Canadian farmers anticipate producing 17.0 million tonnes of canola in 2016, down 1.2% from 2015. While the national average yield is projected to remain at 38.0 bushels per acre, lower expected harvested areas in Alberta and Manitoba are contributing to the decline in national production.
Lentil production is expected to reach a record high in 2016, as farmers estimate output to increase 36.3% from a year earlier to 3.2 million tonnes. The rise in lentil production is the result of a 36.9% increase in harvest area to 5.4 million acres, as expected average yield was 0.5% lower this year at 1,326 pounds per acre.