Statistics Canada is expecting Ontario farmers to produce 8.4 million tonnes of corn this year, down 4.5% from 2015. The lower production is attributed to an expected decline in yield and a lower reported harvested acreage this year. At the national level, corn production is estimated to decrease 2.9%.
Quebec’s production is expected to decline by 5.5% to 3.6 million tonnes.
Although average yield in Manitoba is expected to decline 2.9% from 2015 to 122.8 bushels per acre, production is anticipated to increase 26.8% to 1.0 million tonnes in 2016, primarily as a result of an expected gain in harvested acreage (+30.6% to 320,000 acres), said Stats Can.
Canadian soybean production is estimated to be virtually unchanged compared with 2015, totalling 6.0 million tonnes in 2016. Hot and dry growing conditions in Ontario led to an expected 3.0% decrease in soybean yield to 44.1 bushels per acre in 2016. Production within the province is expected to be down 10.0% from 2015 to 3.2 million tonnes.
However, soybean production in Manitoba is estimated to be up 24.7% compared with 2015, because of an expected increase in harvested area (+16.3% to 1.6 million acres) and average yield (+7.3% to 39.7 bushels per acre) in 2016.
Stats Can officials note that the latest forecast is part of the model-based Principal Field Crop Estimates that have replaced the September Farm Survey. The yield estimates are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada’s Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada’s field crop reporting series, and agro-climatic data.
A methodology report describing the yield model is available online at the Statistics Canada website.