For 2016-17, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada says Canadian production rose by 9% to 24.2 Mt as a 7% decrease in seeded area was more than offset by a 16% increase in average yields.
The quality of the wheat crop in Eastern Canada is good but the quality in Western Canada is variable; overall, it is somewhat lower than for 2015-16 and for the past five-year average.
CWRS’s (Canadian Western Red Spring) share of the total wheat production is estimated to decline to 70% from 76% for 2015-16. Alberta accounts for 35% of total wheat production, Saskatchewan for 34%, Manitoba for 18%, Ontario for 11% and the remaining provinces for 2%.
Supply is virtually unchanged from 2015-16 as the rise in production is offset by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall by 3% to 16.7 Mt because of the lower supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 14% to 3.5 Mt, 37% lower than for the past five-year average of 5.5 Mt.
World all wheat (including durum) production increased by 9 Mt to a record 744 Mt. Supply rose by 33 Mt to 984 Mt. Total use is expected to increase by 24 Mt to 736 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 8 Mt to 248 Mt.
U.S. all wheat production rose by 7.3 Mt to 63.2 Mt, with a 30% increase for hard red winter wheat, a 29% increase for white wheat, a 4% decrease for soft red winter wheat and a 13% decrease for hard red spring wheat. Supply rose by 13.1 Mt to 92.8Mt. Domestic use is expected to rise by 3.3 Mt and exports are forecast to rise by 5.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 4.4 Mt to 31 Mt.
The average crop year producer price in Canada for wheat is forecast to decrease from 2015-16 because of the higher US and world supply. Prices have declined less for milling quality high protein hard red spring wheat than for other classes of wheat because of a limited supply in Canada and strong demand for that quality of wheat in world markets.
(Source: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, Oct. 21, 2016)