The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks while corn stocks held steady in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Other notable items in the April 11 report include increased production estimates for corn and soybeans in South America. Here are some highlights from the report:
This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for increased corn used to produce ethanol, reduced feed and residual use and unchanged U.S. ending stocks.
Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.45 billion. Offsetting is a 50 million bushel reduction in projected feed and residual use to 5.5 billion bushels based on disappearance indicated during the first half of the marketing year in the March 31 Grain Stocks. With offsetting usage changes, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 2.32 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $3.25.
Also of note, Brazil corn production is raised primarily on larger projected second crop area. The WASDE report says the latest government data indicate a higher-than-expected expansion of area in both the Center-West and North. Argentina corn production is increased on the latest harvest results indicating better-than-expected yields. Other major corn production changes include increases for Mexico, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Africa, with reductions for Paraguay, Ecuador and Russia.
Major global trade changes for 2016/17 this month include higher projected corn exports for Brazil and Argentina, with increased competition from these countries expected to impact the 2017/18 marketing year in the United States. Corn imports are raised for Mexico, with mostly offsetting reductions for Indonesia, Venezuela, Philippines, and Colombia. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month, with the biggest increases for Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, and Argentina.
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2016/17 include higher seed use, reduced residual disappearance, and higher ending stocks. Seed use is raised in line with the record plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, and residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.
With exports and crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.
Projected prices for soybeans and products are reduced this month. The season-average soybean price is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $9.55 per bushel based on marketings to date and lower expected prices for the second half of the marketing year.
The 2016/17 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts show higher production, exports, crush, and ending stocks compared to last month.
Global oilseed production is raised 5.4 million tons to 563.4 million mainly on a combined 5.0-million-ton increase in soybean production for Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina. As a result, forecasted global soybean exports are increased 2.2 million tons to 143.3 million. Corresponding to higher exports, soybean imports are raised for China and the EU.
Higher soybean production has also led to a 0.4-million-ton increase in global forecasted crush and a 4.6-million-ton increase in soybean stocks. Global soybean stocks are projected at a record 87.4 million tons, 10.3 million above a year earlier.
Soybean meal production is raised 0.3 million tons aligned with higher projected crush, but with lower domestic use and import demand, soybean meal stocks are increased 0.9 million tons.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 30 million bushels on lower feed and residual use which more than offsets a slight import reduction. At 1.159 billion bushels, ending stocks are projected to reach a near 30-year high.
Feed and residual use is lowered 35 million bushels to 190. The import change is based on the pace to date with reductions for soft red winter and durum.
Global 2016/17 wheat supplies are raised 1.7 million tons due to higher projected beginning stocks and a 0.3-million-ton increase in production. The change to beginning stocks stems from a 1.4-million-ton reduction in 2015/16 domestic consumption, primarily in the EU. World exports are lowered 0.3 million tons led by 0.5-million-ton decreases each for Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Partly offsetting are higher projected exports for the EU and Ukraine.
Total global consumption for 2016/17 is lowered 0.6 million tons to 740.8 million with a one-million ton decrease in the United States more than offsetting a small net increase for foreign countries. With supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks are raised 2.3 million tons to 252.3 million.