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MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES PREDICT RECORD CANADIAN SOYBEAN CROP

on October 16 | in Ag News | by | with No Comments

From Statistics Canada

Soybean production in Canada is estimated to reach a record 8.3 million tonnes in 2017, according to Statistics Canada’s model-based principal field crop estimates. Canola production is also estimated to reach a record, at 19.7 million tonnes. Stats Can says current oilseed prices and profitability have encouraged Canadian farmers to plant record acreage for both of these crops.

Soybeans

Soybean production is estimated to be a record at 8.3 million tonnes in 2017, up 28.8% from 2016, due primarily to an estimated increase of 34.6% in harvested area to 7.2 million acres at the national level. Yield at the national level is estimated to be 42.2 bushels per acre, down 4.3% from 2016. Nearly half of the national soybean production is expected from Ontario at 4.1 million tonnes, with an estimated record yield of 49.3 bushels per acre, up 7.4% from 2016. The previous record of 48.3 bushels per acre was set in 2012.

Corn for grain

At the national level, corn for grain production is estimated to be at 14.3 million tonnes in 2017, an increase of 8.5% from 2016. Production is estimated to increase due to a larger harvested area (+7.0%) from 2016. Ontario is estimated to produce 9.0 million tonnes of grain corn based on a yield estimate of 169.5 bushels per acre, up 6.9% from 2016. The record yield in Ontario was in 2015 at 170.6 bushels per acre. Quebec corn production is estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, down 2.6% from 2016.

Wheat

Total wheat production in Canada is estimated to be 27.1 million tonnes in 2017, a decline of 14.5% from 2016. The decline in production is attributed to lower yields in spring wheat, durum wheat and winter wheat compared with last year. The decline in yield, most notably in Western Canada, was due to the very dry conditions in the south central region of the Prairies where precipitation during the growing season was significantly lower than the average.

At the national level, spring wheat production is estimated to be 20.1 million tonnes in 2017, down 1.8% from 2016. Although the 2017 harvested acreage is estimated to be 8.0% higher compared with the previous year, overall production is expected to be down due to a lower estimated yield of 47.2 bushels per acre at the national level, down 9.2% from 52.0 bushels per acre in 2016.

Durum wheat production at the national level is expected to be 4.3 million tonnes in 2017, down 44.6% from 2016. This decrease is due to a 12.9% reduction in harvested acreage. As well, very dry conditions in the south central region of the Prairies are expected to result in a decline of 36.5% in expected yield, to 31.0 bushels per acre. Durum production is concentrated in the Prairie region that received below-average precipitation during the growing season.

Canola

Canola production is estimated to be a record for 2017 at 19.7 million tonnes, up 0.5% over 2016. Although harvested area is estimated at a record 22.8 million acres, up 13.8% compared with 2016, lower yields in 2017 for all provinces except Manitoba have contributed to a gain in production compared with 2016.

Model-based principal field crop estimates are calculated according to an approach developed by Statistics Canada in close partnership with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. These yield estimates are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada’s Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada’s field crop reporting series, and agroclimatic data.

A methodology report describing the yield model used at Statistics Canada is available online.

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