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STATS CAN MODEL PREDICTS RECORD GRAIN CORN CROP

on October 16 | in Ag News | by | with Comments Off on STATS CAN MODEL PREDICTS RECORD GRAIN CORN CROP

From Statistics Canada

Canadian producers are looking at a record corn for grain crop this fall.

Statistics Canada’s model-based principal field crop estimates forecast record production of 14.5 million tonnes of corn for grain, up 2.6% from 2017. The increase in production is the result of a similar increase in harvested area (+2.4%) from 2017, with yield for 2018 estimated at 160.1 bushels per acre.

Ontario is estimated to produce a record 9.1 million tonnes of corn for grain based on a record yield estimate of 169.3 bushels per acre, up 1.4% from 2017. The previous record yield for Ontario was 169.0 bushels per acre in 2015. Quebec corn for grain production is estimated at 3.8 million tonnes in 2018.

Soybean yield for 2018 is estimated at 44.1 bushels per acre (+12.8%) at the national level. Despite the increase in yield, an anticipated decline of 13.7% in harvested area to 6.3 million acres is expected to result in a production estimate of 7.5 million tonnes for 2018, down 2.6% from 2017.

Ontario is estimated to produce 4.0 million tonnes of Canada’s soybeans, or 53.3% of the national production in 2018. Manitoba is second at 1.9 million tonnes, or 25.3% of the country’s capacity. That is a substantial increase from the 36,700 tonnes produced in 2001 when Statistics Canada first reported soybean production in Manitoba.

Total wheat production in Canada is estimated to be 31.0 million tonnes in 2018, an increase of 3.5% over 2017. An overall decline in estimated total wheat yield to 46.9 bushels per acre somewhat offset a 9.4% increase in harvested area compared with 2017.

Canola production is estimated to be 21.0 million tonnes for 2018, down 1.5% from 2017. Although the 2018 canola yield at 41.1 bushels per acre is marginally higher (+0.2%) than 2017, a 1.7% decline in the harvested area will translate into a 1.5% decrease in national production.

Model-based principal field crop estimates are calculated according to an approach developed by Statistics Canada in close partnership with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. These yield estimates are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada’s Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada’s field crop reporting series, and agroclimatic data.

Production estimates for Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are calculated using the model-based yields as of August 31, multiplied by the reported harvested area from the July Farm Survey of the field crop reporting series.

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