From Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Outlook for Principal Field Crops report
In its first look at the 2019-20 crop year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is expecting Canadian farmers to plant more corn and wheat acres while slightly cutting back on soybeans. The estimates for the new crop year were part of the market outlook released on January 25.
For corn, AAFC expects the seeded area to increase 6% due to steady prices and continued good overall demand, especially for high-quality corn. Production is forecast to increase 6% to 14.7 million tonnes (Mt) on the higher area and higher average yields.
Imports are expected to decrease due to the higher production of corn and barley. Total domestic use is forecast to decrease slightly as the lower feed, waste and dockage is expected to more than offset higher food and industrial use.
Exports are forecast to increase due to higher production and back to normal crop quality. Carry-out stocks are forecast to be the same as last year at 2.0 Mt and remain below the previous five-year average.
Planted area in Canada is forecast to fall marginally to 2.48 million hectares (Mha) due to a modest decline in Western Canada, as a result of concerns over dry growing conditions. Production is forecast to fall slightly to 7.0 Mt, versus 7.3 Mt in 2018-19 and the record 7.7 Mt grown in 2017-18, assuming 5-year average yields.
Imports of US soybeans are forecast to be steady with previous years at about 0.4 Mt, mostly for crushing.
Exports are forecast at 5.0 Mt, making soybeans Canada’s third largest exported crop, with shipments headed to a diverse group of countries. Domestic processing is forecast steady at 1.9 Mt as crushers strive to service the local market for soybean oil. Carry-out stocks are forecast down to 0.33 Mt versus 0.40 Mt estimated for 2018-19 and the 0.65 Mt carried out in 2017-18.
The area seeded to wheat in Canada is forecast to increase by 9% from 2017-18 as a 4% decrease for winter wheat is more than offset by a 10% increase for spring wheat. The spring wheat area is forecast to increase because of relatively good prices for wheat and a shift out of durum and winter wheat in Western Canada.
Exports are forecast to fall slightly due to higher world production. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 37% to 5.5 Mt.