From Agriculture Canada’s Field Crop Report
SOYBEANS For 2014-15 , exports are forecast to rise by 19% from 2013-14 to 4.3 Mt on steady world demand and large exportable supplies. Domestic crush is forecast to rise by 5% on large available stocks and generally good crush margins. Carry-out stocks are forecast up by 15%, to 0.25 Mt. Prices are forecast to fall under pressure from lower US prices and large world soybean supplies.
During the early-spring period of the year, the world soybean market focuses on crop conditions in South America. Compared to last year, the USDA is predicting production in Brazil to increase by 10% while Argentina rises by a more modest 2%. Brazil exports almost one-half of its soybean crop and competes with the US as the world with about 46 Mt expected to be exported this crop year. Argentina, by contrast, crushes most of its soybeans and exports the soyoil and soymeal. Brazil enjoys a cost of production advantage over the US in producing soybeans, but is constrained by an under- developed logistics system – which it is actively working to expand. Production is still expected to be record high. Harvest has begun regionally and normally extends into May.
For 2015-16 , the area planted to soybeans is forecast to rise by 4%, to a record 2.35 mln ha, on support from attractive prices relative to cereals and its yield stability compared to alternate crops. Production is forecast to rise by 10%, to 6.65 Mt, assuming normal yields. Supply is expected to increase by 8% as increased carry-in stocks add to the rise in output.
Exports are forecast to increase by 0.5 Mt from 2014- 15, to 4.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast up slightly at 0.275 Mt. Average Canadian prices are forecast to decrease from 2015-16 under pressure from lower US and world prices.