From Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Outlook for Principal Field Crops
Soybean exports are forecast to rise by 23% from 2013-14 to 4.2 Mt on steady world demand and large exportable supplies. Crush is forecast to rise by 5% on large available domestic stocks and generally good crush margins. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 15% to 0.30 Mt. Prices are forecast to fall under pressure from lower US prices and large world soybean supplies.
For 2014-15, Japan is expected to remain a stable importer of soybeans, at 2.85 Mt. The US, the largest supplier of soybeans to Japan, is expected to ship almost 1.9 Mt to that country. Japan imports soybeans to supply its crush sector but is also expected to import about 0.93 Mt of soybeans for food consumption. About 0.45 Mt of food-gate soybeans are consumed for tofu, 0.12 Mt for each of Natto and Miso and about 42,000 tonnes are used to produce soymilk. The remainder of the food grade soybeans are consumed as Soy sauce, Frozen Tofu, Boiled Beans and Other. Through its focus on non-GE, food-grade soybean varieties, Canada has gained market share into the food grade segment of the soybean market. For 2014- 15, Canada is expected to ship 0.37 Mt of soybeans to Japan, mostly into the food sector of the soybean market.
For 2015-16 , the area seeded to soybeans in Canada is forecast to fall by 3%, to 2.18 mln ha, as lower prices and disappointing yields in some locations prompt a shift into alternate crops. With a cold spring, planting may be delayed across eastern Canada while in western Canada, planting is expected to be well ahead of last year on a mild spring. Production across Canada is forecast to fall by 10%, to 5.45 Mt, assuming normal yields. Supply is expected to decrease by 10% as a marginal rise in carry-in stocks fails to moderate the rise in output.. Exports are forecast at 3.7 Mt, down 0.5 Mt from 2014-15, on steady to strong world demand. Carry-out stocks are forecast down slightly at0.23 Mt. Average Canadian prices are forecast to decrease from 2015-16 under pressure from lower US and world prices with losses moderated by the lower Canadian dollar.